未來十年人口變遷對中醫醫療服務及人力政策影響的預測

洪錦墩
中臺科技大學
人口老化迅速，慢性疾病與癌症等不易治癒疾病越來越多，中醫醫療服務成為許多民眾的就醫之新選擇。台灣地區民眾的年齡結構、疾病型態與醫療利用之現況分析將有助於中醫醫療服務供應之設計與規劃。因此中醫醫療政策的發展需因應時代環境改變有所調整，以因應未來整體民眾醫療需求與醫療環境之改變。
本研究擬針對人口結構之變動分析疾病類型之改變影響程度，並分析台灣地區民眾疾病類型之現況，推估民眾未來10年在人口結構與疾病類型改變下，對於中醫醫療需求之可能。因此將以全民健保資料庫之中醫醫療利用情況為研究最主要之資料庫來源，將逐年分析所有中醫診察之疾病與年齡特質。並由中醫醫療專家分別就中醫診察疾病之診斷區分該疾病所屬中醫專科別，以利未來如欲進行中醫專科制度之規劃準備。
研究結果將呈現民眾中醫就醫疾病類型現況及未來十年發展之推估，並可針對未來10年因人口改變對於中醫醫療需求與需求類型進行預測與推估，提供政府部門參考，以創造一個符合民眾需求之中醫醫療環境與制訂合宜之中醫醫療政策，以滿足未來民眾之對中醫醫療需求。
關鍵字：中醫醫療服務、疾病型態、人口老化

Forecasting the impact of demographic change to Chinese medical services policy in Taiwan

Chin-Tun Hung
Central Taiwan University of Science and Technology
Rapidly aging population, chronic diseases such as cancer and difficult to cure or therapy to cure diseases Western medicine more and more, the Chinese medical services into the treatment of the many people a new choice. Taiwan residents age structure, disease patterns and the medical use of the current status of Chinese medical services will help the supply of design and planning. Therefore the development of traditional Chinese medicine policies needed to be times change, adjustments to the overall population of their future medical needs and the changing medical environment. 
This study was to address changes in the demographic structure of the type of disease impact of the change, and analysis of types of people in Taiwan the current status of the disease, estimated that the next 10 people in the population structure and change the type of disease, the demand for traditional Chinese medicine may be. So will the National Health Insurance database for the use of traditional Chinese medicine research database of the most important sources of all Chinese medicine practitioners will be gradually examination of the nature of disease and age. By Chinese medical experts on Chinese medicine checkups disease diagnosis of the disease which distinguish Chinese specialties for the benefit of future Chinese medicine specialist who carried out the planning for the system.
關鍵字：Chinese medical services; disease patterns ; Aging