我國中醫師人力供需推估之研究

郭乃文
台北醫學院
在我國民間，中醫醫療是非常重要的傳統醫療。在全民健保醞釀實施前後之近幾年來，中醫醫療體系研究所探討的質量與深度都較以往研究有長足進步。但是，使用更新更進一步的客觀資料來擴展臺灣中醫藥政策的討論空間，以幫助解決政策議題的紛爭，是政府中醫政策現階段重點工作之一。另外，由於政府大陸政策變動，國內即將承認部份大陸中醫學校之學歷，如此必然會對國內中醫師市場供給面造成衝擊，故實有必要在此時對中醫師人力需求問題做一探討。

本計畫主要的目的有四：第一、探討臺灣地區民眾對中醫醫療之需求頻率及影響因素。第二、估計臺灣地區中醫師之生產力函數。第三、推估全民健保擴大中醫醫療給付範圍對中醫醫療需求之影響。第四、推估承認大陸中醫學歷對臺灣地區中醫師供給面之影響。最後，推估未來五年內臺灣地區中醫師之人力需求及供給量，提出具體建議，以提供政府教育及衛生主管機關之參考。

本研究將根據（Macstraric, 1987；Reinhardt, 1981）所建議之推估醫師人力之需求與供給模型，以下列四個步驟來推估未來五年內台灣地區中醫師之人力需求及供給量：1.先決定所欲服務的地區或人口範圍；2.估計目標人口群的醫療需求；3.計算醫事人員之生產力；4.由2和3之結果，可將人口群的醫療需求換算出此人口群對醫事人力之需求。
關鍵字：中醫醫療需求、中醫師生產力、中醫師人力供給

Manpower Forecasting for Chinese Medical Practitioners in Taiwan

Nai-Wen Kuo
Taipei Medical College
The objective of this research is of threefold. First, to measure the major factors influencing utilization of Chinese practitioners visits and to estimate a production function of Chinese practitioner medical services; second, to forecast the impacts of increases of the National Health Insurance (NHI) benefit package of Chinese medicine on the utilization of Chinese medical care and to predict the impacts of the acknowledgment of the diploma certified by Chinese medical schools from Mainland China on the supply of Chinese medical care services in Taiwan; third, to forecast the supply and demand of Chinese medical care services for the next five years in Taiwan.

The data for the research comes from the following sources: First, both National Medical Care Expenditure Survey in 1991 and Satisfaction Survey of the National Health Insurance in 1996, which were administered by the NHI Task Force of the Department of Health, will be employed to estimate demand equations before and aft
關鍵字：Demand for Chinese Medical Care; Productivity of Chinese Practitioners; Manpower of Chinese Practitioners